Shunsuke Tsuda investigates rural economic geography and its implications for human and ecological well-being in developing economies. He also studies political economy issues in fragile societies, including conflicts and forced displacement, from spatial, historical, and behavioral perspectives. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Brown University in 2023.

Human and Nature: Economies of Density and Conservation in the Amazon Rainforest, with Yoshito Takasaki and Mari Tanaka [SSRN] [New draft coming soon]

Conserving tropical forests impacts the standard of living of local populations. Moreover, human adaptation through sectoral or spatial reallocation of economic activity may undermine conservation policy goals. To derive policies that balance human and ecological well-being, this paper estimates a multi-sector spatial model that formalizes human-nature interactions using high-resolution georeferenced data from roadless river basins in the Peruvian Amazon. Identification comes from plausibly exogenous variation in the structure of river networks. We find that the agglomeration externality in agricultural production outweighs dispersion forces in access to land, implying that higher concentration leads to higher productivity with less deforestation per farmer. We also find a strong congestion externality with spatial spillovers in natural resource extraction. The estimated agglomeration externality, primarily driven by economies of scale in transport technology and agricultural intensification, generates large welfare and forest cover gains but leads to natural resource depletion through general equilibrium effects. Counterfactuals demonstrate that combining well-targeted place-based protection policies and transport infrastructure can simultaneously achieve higher welfare, lower deforestation, and less natural resource depletion.

Interethnic Proximity, Complementarities, and Politics in Malaysia, with Chun Chee Kok, Gedeon Lim, Danial Shariat, and Abu Siddique [New draft!]

How does persistent interethnic proximity influence political identity and long-run economic development? To answer this, we exploit fine-grained spatial variation from a British colonial resettlement policy in Malaysia (1948-1951), which forcibly relocated over half a million ethnic minority Chinese into segregated “Chinese New Villages” (CNVs). Ethnic majority Malays residing in polling districts closer to CNVs exhibit lower electoral support for the ethnonationalist coalition, potentially reflecting a moderation of ethnonationalistic political identity. We also observe significant impacts on contemporary local economic development. The political effects are stronger in regions with historical interethnic complementarities, indicating that initial economic interdependence had lasting consequences, even without persistent economic gains. Novel primary survey data further reveal that Malays living near CNVs report greater contact with Chinese, higher interethnic trust, weaker zero-sum mindsets, and higher income and wealth. These findings suggest that persistent intergroup contact and economic complementarities can jointly underpin political moderation and local development.

Jihad over Centuries, with Masahiro Kubo [New draft coming soon] Hayami Award 2022

This paper examines the origins of Islamist insurgencies, or jihad, through the lens of past prosperity, decline, and cultural revival in West Africa. Using shrinking water sources as an instrument, we show that once-prosperous trans-Saharan cities, thriving under pre-colonial Islamic states but now deserted, have become contemporary hotspots of jihadist violence. We argue that military power asymmetries between Islamic states and colonizers during historical jihad shaped the persistence of jihadist ideology as a colonial legacy, fueling today’s resurgence especially in areas that lacked intense armed resistance to colonial invasion. Qualitative evidence suggests that this ideological transmission was facilitated by a religious practice of outward adaptation to immediate constraints while internally preparing to reassert Islamic purity. This mechanism is further supported by a dynamic model of conflict and individual-level surveys examining extreme religious ideologies. Moreover, the concentration of jihadist violence in areas that experienced reversals of fortune mirrors a global pattern.

Refugee Inflows, Surplus Farm Labor, and Crop Marketization in Rural Africa, Journal of Development Economics, Volume 155, March 2022, 102805 [working paper ver.]

Interethnic Proximity and Competition in Southeast Asia, with Chun Chee Kok, Gedeon Lim, and Abu Siddique

Multinational Companies and Conflict: Theory and Evidence from the Mining Sector, with David Andrés-Cerezo and Michele Rosenberg

Market-Driven Social Cohesion in a Diverse African City, with Tomohiro Hara, Soyoka Okamura, and Yuko Shem Okoth

Local Intelligence for Targeting High-Risk Populations, with Tomohiro Hara, Shinji Okazaki, and Yuko Shem Okoth

De-Radicalization and Reintegration from Violent Islamic Extremism through Social Contact, with Jun Goto, Tomohiro Hara, and Yosuke Nagai

Caste Segregation and Spatial Misallocation in Village India, with Kazuki Motohashi and Mike Neubauer

Entrepreneurship, Informality, and Preference Heterogeneity within Small and Micro-Businesses in India, The Economic Review, 69.3 (2018): 242-275. with Jun Goto, Hironori Ishizaki, Takashi Kurosaki, and Yasuyuki Sawada